Latest Poll Shows Two Politicians Already Shaping The 2028 Contest

JD Vance and Gavin Newsom lead the early 2028 fields, according to a new national survey that already has campaigns shifting strategy and spending plans. The Emerson College poll frames this as more than name recognition. It is an early map of where money, messages and activists may flow next.

Those early leads sit atop a broader picture the poll calls uneven. The survey of 1,000 likely voters found 55% disapprove of President Donald Trump while 43% approve. That gap matters for primary math and for general election narratives, because approval under fifty opens space for rivals to make the case for a new direction.

At the same time, the poll tests who voters are leaning toward in 2028. Emerson’s headline line up has Newsom at the top of the Democratic pack with 20%, followed by Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris, while Vance holds a commanding lead in the Republican field. Those early percentages shape donor behavior and the first rounds of endorsements.

The president used the State of the Union to sell his record. “This is the golden age of America,” he said. “We have achieved a transformation like no one has ever seen before. It is a turnaround for the ages.” Those lines play well on stage. But for many voters the sound bites did not erase doubts about pocketbook pain or steady leadership.

Doubt is not the only problem flagged by other surveys. A Reuters and Ipsos poll finds 61% of respondents say the president has “become erratic with age,” a view shared even by a slice of his own party. That kind of perception affects trust on national security and crisis moments, and it can reshuffle who voters are willing to back in 2028.

Demographics make the race more complex. Emerson’s detailed cross tabs show a notable shift among Hispanic voters. “Hispanics disapprove of the job the president is doing, 58% to 37%, a significant shift after reporting a near-split rating last month (43% approve to 45% disapprove) following the administration’s military action in Venezuela,” Spencer Kimball said. That 13 point move in a single month is the sort of change campaigns treat as a red flag.

Emerson is explicit about limits. “The overall sample of US likely voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percent,” the release notes. Subsets such as primary voters carry wider intervals. So some swings are noise. Still, large moves inside a key group are real enough to force tactical shifts.

The poll also drills into who is carving out bases for 2028. “Candidates are starting to carve out their 2028 bases: AOC has a plurality support among voters under 30 (20%), Buttigieg leads among women with 20%, along with plurality support of postgraduates (21%), while Newsom leads among voters over 50 (23%). The Black vote backs Harris (36%),” Kimball noted. Those splits show how different candidates can win parts of the electorate even while no one wins a full coalition.

On the Republican side the primary numbers are stark. “Vice President JD Vance continues to lead the Republican Primary contest, with 52%, followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 20% and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 6%. Eleven percent are undecided,” the Emerson release says. A large lead in a primary narrows the lane for challengers and concentrates cash and endorsements.

Down ballot the survey gives Democrats an edge on the generic ballot, 50 to 42. That eight point margin matters for House math and for how national parties allocate resources. If that trend holds into the midterms, it will affect the electoral map and the narrative heading into 2028.

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