Ex-GOP Strategist Warns: Trump Is “Planning a Siege” as 2026 Midterms Approach

Donald Trump is heading toward the 2026 midterms with fading support, but one former Republican strategist says this is exactly when Trump becomes most dangerous. According to Rick Wilson, co-founder of The Lincoln Project and once a GOP insider, people should not assume that a weaker Trump means a calmer Trump. Wilson argues the opposite, and his warning is clear.

Trump’s approval rating has dropped to 40%, a 16-point fall from when he first entered office, based on new numbers from The Economist. Americans have also turned away from his domestic and economic policies. Even Republicans sent him a loud message by widely supporting the bill to force the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files. Trump did not want that bill to pass, and his administration tried to stop it by pressuring people including Rep. Lauren Boebert to vote against it. But the GOP refused to listen.

Wilson says moments like this may look like things are settling down. They may even make some people feel hopeful that the country is returning to normal. But Wilson warns that this is not what happens with Trump.

Wilson wrote in his essay, “Trump is not planning a quiet sunset. He is planning a siege.”

And his warning does not stop there.

Wilson says Trump is already preparing this “siege” by putting people who challenged the 2020 election into important government roles. One example is Heather Honey, Trump’s deputy assistant secretary for election integrity at the Department of Homeland Security. Honey previously worked for a state anti-voting group in Pennsylvania and still spreads the false claim that Trump lost the 2020 election because of widespread voter fraud. According to Democracy Docket, she continues to push this debunked theory even though courts, state officials, and Trump’s own team rejected it years ago.

Wilson says this is all part of Trump’s plan. He wants loyalists in key positions—people who will protect him, defend his lies, and help him use the federal government for his own benefit. And Wilson believes Trump is already doing it.

Wilson wrote, “Trump is already aiming the federal machine at the midterms…If you think a lame duck can’t cause chaos, you didn’t learn the lesson of 2020.”

Wilson reminded readers that the lame-duck period in 2020 gave Trump and his allies the freedom to build a plan that led to a coup attempt. He pointed out that Trump used that time to pressure state officials, attack the election process, and fuel anger that ended with a mob at the Capitol.

Now, Wilson warns, Trump has something even more dangerous: 4 years of institutional control, a more radical staff, and a president who knows he cannot be reelected and therefore has nothing to lose.

He wrote, “The lame-duck period then gave Trump and his allies space to organize a coup attempt…Now imagine that same playbook with four years of institutional capture, a more radical staff, and a president who knows he can’t be reelected and doesn’t care who he burns.”

Wilson also warned about Republican-led states. He said the country needs to watch how red-state legislatures and courts behave when Trump pressures them to reject outcomes he does not like. His warning is straightforward: Trump will try to use state and federal systems to stay in control.

Wilson wrote, “Watch what happens in red state legislatures and courts when Trump calls on them to throw out the election results, or when Mike Johnson declines to seat newly elected members.”

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